Predicting the future
Here are my own thoughts about predicting the future. Do you remember with the past, present, and future technique having many eye balls increases accuracy well I don’t have that luxury so these conclusions could be faulty but this is my attempt.
Early prediction
Early prediction starts with something small and gets progressively larger.
This technique can be applied to most things but not all.
One of the key parts with Early Prediction is the environment and every environment has a couple of key factors contributing to the growth of that.
Note: You could think of the environment as an eco-system
Note: You could use the past, present, and future technique for the below examples
Facebooks environment started within the university and the key factors contributing to that growth was the internet, word of mouth and its addictive nature. From there it exploded.
So, in the case here is you want to predict the popularity of the website.
EDM
House and Techno music now called EDM (Electronic dance music) started its environment in the night clubs during the 70’s and 80’s playing disco music and the key factors to EDM’s growth was word of mouth, DJ culture, radio play and advertising. While in later years people started going to Raves or out-door events consisting of thousands of people all partying together. Plus, it was just a cool thing to do which spread from one person to another so there’s a coolness factor.
So, in this case you want to predict what it takes to grow the popularity of EDM.
Volcanos
The environment for volcanos is geology.
You may want to predict when the next eruption will occur.
So, the key factors that may contribute an explosion is the flow of lava and what lies beneath the crater I’m taking a guess here. I’m not a volcanologist but you get the picture.
With those key factors you can then use special equipment to monitor and analyse the volcano.
What’s in it for you
By figuring out the environment and key factors you will be able to predict which part the future you want. You may need to manipulate/add/subtract some key factors to help with your predictions.
